It seems Oregon State Sen. Sara Gelser, who’s done so much
to make Oregon’s bad child welfare system even worse, didn’t like being called
out about it on
this blog yesterday. But even if
every statistic she cites in a series of tweets this afternoon is accurate,
they show only that Oregon’s rate of child removal has declined from horrendous
to merely egregious.
Gelser’s tweets about entries into foster care offer pretty
pictures – but no actual sources for the data. So, for example, there is no way to be sure
that the data conform fully to requirements of the federal database to which
states have to report entries into care.
Also, Gelser compares entries only to total child population. A fairer comparison compares entries to the number
of impoverished children in each
state. (Oregon does badly either way –
but even worse when you factor in poverty.)
The most recent data released by the federal government show
that when poverty is factored in, Oregon tore apart families at a rate more than
40 percent above the national average in the year ending Sept. 30,
2017. I did a back-of-the-envelope
extrapolation from the extremely limited data Gelser provides, an extrapolation
that gives Oregon’s Department of Human Services the benefit of the doubt. I
found that, even if Gelser’s figures are correct, Oregon is still tearing apart
families at a rate roughly 25 percent
above the national average. (Anyone who wants to know the basis for the
estimate is welcome to email me.)
When compared to total
child population, Oregon was “only” about 12 percent above the national
average in 2017 – so you can see why Gelser doesn’t want to use the more valid
comparison that factors in poverty. Gelser then
claims that in calendar year 2018 this version of the rate of removal
declined to “only” eight percent above the national average (actually it’s
probably more like nine percent).
But this isn’t the only way Gelser was selective in the
figures she presented. She neglects to mention that a large part of the 2018
decline simply reversed significant increases in 2015, 2016, and 2017 – when Gelser
herself was demanding ever more coercive intervention into families and
confusing child removal with child safety.
(These data can be found by following
this link and scrolling to the bottom of the page.) So now, apparently,
Gelser wants to take credit for starting to solve a problem she did so much to worsen
in the first place.
Disingenuous use of data on abuse in foster care
In
a post to this blog last November, and elsewhere, I explained why the one
sure way to know someone in child welfare is being disingenuous is if they try
to get you to believe that official figures concerning the rate of abuse in
foster care bear any resemblance to reality.
Study after study after study shows that they don’t. And that should come as no surprise, because
the official figures involve agencies investigating themselves.
So guess what Gelser uses to claim that abuse in Oregon
foster care has declined: Just what you’d
expect.
And finally there is the item discussed in yesterday’s post
to which Gelser has offered no response: Why did she press full-speed ahead
with her successful effort to kill differential response even after independent
evaluators found that it was safe?
Still, the news isn’t all bad. The first step toward solving a problem is
admitting you have one. And Gelser now
admits that Oregon’s rate of removal is “still too high.” If only she’d own up to her own role in keeping
it too high.
